March 2026 Edition | Published March 23, 2026 | 65+ sources across 5 categories | People · Utility · Liquidity · Supply · Economy
Executive Summary
Market state: Central Ohio remains a seller’s market, but the gap between seller and buyer leverage is closing. More inventory, longer days on market, and rising price reductions are real — just not dramatic.
Feb. 2026 core metrics: $315,000 median (+3.3% YoY) · 49 days on market (+14% YoY) · 3,999 active listings (+7.6% YoY) · 3,262 YTD closings (essentially flat vs. 2025)
2025 full-year: 29,626 closings (+3% YoY) · $11.1B total sales volume · Columbus ranked #4 nationally on Realtor.com hotness index
The headwind: Mortgage rates briefly touched 5.98% on Feb. 27 — first sub-6% print since fall 2022. A U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran began the next day. By March 23, rates are back to 6.36–6.53%. That reversal is the single biggest factor shaping spring 2026 in Columbus and nationally.
Forward signal: WSJ’s Greg Ip reported March 22 the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike. Fed held rates at the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. Oil at/above $100/barrel. Spring momentum exists — whether it survives this rate environment is the open question.
P | People
Columbus ended 2025 growing at 1.38% — nearly 40% faster than the U.S. average. In December 2025, the NAR named Columbus one of its top 10 homebuying hot spots for 2026, citing job growth, income trends, millennial concentration, migration patterns, and price-to-income alignment. The region’s income growth is running 7.2% above the prior year. Millennials make up 37.5% of area households. The NAR calculated that at a 6% rate, 41,000 additional Columbus-area households would qualify for a median-priced home.
That math got complicated fast. Rates touched 5.98% on February 27, briefly opening that door — then the war started the next day and rates climbed back above 6.3% within three weeks. On a $315,000 purchase with 10% down, the difference between 5.98% and today’s 6.36% is about $70/month. Not make-or-break for most buyers. For first-timers already stretching to qualify, it sometimes is.
Consumer sentiment was fragile heading into spring even before the rate reversal. Only 22% of Americans said it was a “good time to buy” per Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index. First-time buyers nationally hit a record low 21% share of purchases, with a median age of 40. All-cash buyers hit a record high 26%. Those two facts read together tell you who is still transacting freely and who is not.
Columbus-specific demand signals remain strong. Olentangy School District logged 108 December closings at a $539,850 median. Hilliard combined for 137 December closings, up 23% YoY. Pickerington posted 36.4% YoY growth in February closings — the strongest community-level gain in the Columbus REALTORS monthly report. The school district premium and suburban migration story are intact.
U | Utility
Transit: LinkUS Is Moving
The $8 billion LinkUS transit project is on schedule. West Broad Street BRT breaks ground in 2026 and opens in 2028. East Main corridor follows in 2029. The largest transit investment in Columbus history passed with 57% of the vote in November 2024. Properties along planned BRT corridors are drawing early attention from investors who watched the corridor-appreciation effect play out in other Midwestern cities.
Data Centers: The 1,800% Story — and What It Actually Means for Jobs
Columbus City Council held a public hearing March 11 on data center growth in Central Ohio. According to a JLL report cited at the hearing, the number of data centers in Columbus grew 1,800% between 2020 and 2025. The region now has 134 data centers — more than half of Ohio’s total 200. A University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center report projects Columbus will pass New York City to become the second-largest data center hub in the Great Lakes region by 2030, behind Chicago. Meta is completing its Prometheus facility in New Albany in 2026 — the world’s first data center requiring over 1 gigawatt of power.
The “jobs” framing coming from industry groups and economic development offices deserves scrutiny. Independent research tells a different story than the press releases.
What independent research actually shows on data center employment
An average-sized facility using 2–5 megawatts of power employs roughly 30 permanent workers — a building the size of a big-box store with a crew the size of a big-box store (Built In, 2025). Hyperscale facilities over 100 megawatts can operate with as few as 20 permanent employees (Hamm Institute for American Energy). Independent studies found as few as 23,000 people working across 4,000 U.S. data centers in 2024 — averaging roughly 6 people per facility (Missoula Current, 2026).
Real-world comparisons from neutral sources: Google’s 500-acre, 500-megawatt campus in Kansas City is expected to create 1,000 construction jobs and 200 permanent positions. The first Stargate data center in Abilene, Texas required 6,400 workers to build, with permanent workforce estimates ranging from 100 to 1,000. A 1.1-million-square-foot Vantage Data Centers facility outside Reno projected 73 permanent jobs over a decade against 4,000 temporary construction jobs (Nevada Independent / Gigafact, 2025).
Some analyses found data centers creating one permanent job per $54 million invested — 168 times less efficient than the $322,000 cost to create a typical non-data-center permanent job (Missoula Current). A 2025 University of Michigan policy brief concluded data centers “do not bring high-paying tech jobs to local communities” and “typically generate few permanent positions relative to the scale of public subsidy they receive.” Good Jobs First found data center tax breaks have produced net negative fiscal impacts in multiple states.
The honest case for Columbus data centers isn’t permanent jobs. It’s property tax revenue and construction workforce activity during the build phase. Ohio’s data centers created roughly 22,300 short-term construction jobs and 4,500 permanent jobs across 100+ facilities as of 2024. That 45-to-1 ratio is the actual story.
None of this makes the data center boom bad for Columbus real estate. Construction activity drives housing demand in New Albany and surrounding communities. Property tax revenue supports the school district premiums that drive buyer decisions. But real estate professionals should understand what they’re looking at — a capital-intensive infrastructure build, not a long-term employer.
The regulatory response is already in motion. Ohio Senate introduced SB 378 (Responsible Water Use by Data Centers Act) on March 16. House Bill 706 aims to prevent data center infrastructure costs from being passed to existing utility customers. Columbus City Council’s March 11 hearing received more than 20 pieces of written public testimony, most centered on energy and water usage concerns.
Utility Cost Increases
| Utility | Change | Effective |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Water | +18% | Jan. 1, 2026 |
| Columbia Gas (fixed charge) | $36 → $58/month | 2026 |
| AEP Ohio (proposed) | +$4/month | PUCO decision pending Q2 2026 |
| Combined household impact | +$36 to $61/month | By 2027 |
For buyers calculating total monthly housing costs, these numbers matter. They don’t show up in the mortgage payment but they show up in the budget.
L | Liquidity
The Rate Whipsaw
| Date | 30-yr Fixed | Source | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 27 | 5.98% | Freddie Mac | First sub-6% since Sept. 2022 |
| Mar. 3 | 6.13% | Mortgage News Daily | War began Feb. 28 |
| Mar. 5 | 6.00% | Freddie Mac | Rate reversal confirmed |
| Mar. 12 | 6.11% | Freddie Mac | Oil sustaining above $100 |
| Mar. 17 | 6.12% | Zillow | Day before FOMC decision |
| Mar. 19 | 6.22% | Freddie Mac | FOMC holds — no cut |
| Mar. 20 | 6.25% | Zillow | Highest since Sept. 2025 |
| Mar. 23 (today) | 6.36% | Bankrate | MND shows 6.47–6.53% |
The driver is oil. U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping, which carries roughly 20% of global supply. Brent crude spiked 15% in the opening days of the conflict. The 10-year Treasury moved from 3.96% on Feb. 27 to 4.17% by mid-March. Mortgage rates track the 10-year, not the Fed funds rate. That distinction matters right now.
The Fed Situation
The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% at the March 17–18 meeting. Per MortgageResearch.com, citing a Wall Street Journal piece by Greg Ip dated March 22, there is “a growing chance” the Fed’s next move is a hike, not a cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he had planned to advocate for a cut at the March meeting but changed his mind after the Iran conflict escalated: “This is looking like it’s going to be a much more protracted conflict, and oil prices are going to stay high for a longer time. So that suggested inflation was more of a concern.” Futures markets now price 50% odds of a hike before year-end.
What the Rate Swing Costs on a Columbus Purchase
| Rate | Monthly P&I on $315K (10% down) | vs. Feb. 27 Low |
|---|---|---|
| 5.98% — Feb. 27 low | ~$1,693 | — |
| 6.22% — Mar. 19 Freddie Mac | ~$1,730 | +$37/mo |
| 6.36% — Mar. 23 Bankrate | ~$1,762 | +$69/mo |
| 6.53% — Mar. 23 MND | ~$1,795 | +$102/mo |
What Forecasters Said Before the War
| Institution | 2026 Rate Forecast |
|---|---|
| NAR | 6.0% average |
| Wells Fargo | 6.14% average |
| Bankrate | ~6.1% avg, range 5.7–6.5% |
| Realtor.com / Redfin | 6.3% average |
| Morgan Stanley | 5.75% by year-end |
| Major agencies consensus | ~6.2% for 2026 |
All of those assumed calmer geopolitics. Most analysts are revising upward.
Refi Window Status
30-year refi rates as of March 23: 6.48% per Zillow, 6.63% per Bankrate. As of Q3 2024, 82.8% of homeowners with mortgages held a rate below 6%, per Redfin. The lock-in effect has returned. The practical refi opportunity is now mostly limited to people who closed at 7%-plus in 2023–2024.
Ohio First-Time Buyer Programs
OHFA posted a record year in 2025: $1.3 billion in loans, 6,664 borrowers. YourChoice! DPA offers 3% or 5% down payment assistance, forgivable after 7 years. On a $315,000 purchase: $9,450 or $15,750. The conventional conforming loan limit rose to $832,750 for 2026, expanding access in upper-price Columbus submarkets.
S | Supply
Columbus Inventory Trend
| Month | Active Listings | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | 5,497 | +19.5% |
| December 2025 | 4,440 | +14.2% |
| February 2026 | 3,999 | +7.6% |
The YoY gain is narrowing. Seasonality explains most of the decline from November’s peak. Rate-driven listing hesitation explains some of the rest. New listings in February dipped 1.8% YoY to 2,197 homes — a small drop but a continuation of a pattern from late 2025.
“Inventory gains are encouraging, but this is still a seller’s market in central Ohio. Preparation matters on both sides of the transaction, especially as competition picks up this spring.”
— Gloria Alonso Cannon, 2026 Columbus REALTORS President
February 2026 by County and District
| Area | Closings | YoY Change | Median Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin County | 888 | −4.6% | $310,000 |
| Delaware County | 165 | +13.0% | — |
| Fairfield County | 131 | +20.2% | — |
| Pickerington LSD | 45 | +36.4% | — |
| Olentangy LSD (Dec. data) | 108 | +24.1% | $539,850 |
YTD through February: 3,262 closings — two fewer than the 3,264 recorded during the same period in 2025. Essentially flat.
National Supply Picture
Nationally, active inventory ended February at 914,860 homes — up 7.9% YoY but still 17% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. 66 of the 200 largest U.S. markets now have inventory above their 2019 baselines per ResiClub. Columbus is not among them. New-home sales nationally fell 17.6% in January to a 587,000 annual pace per Commerce Department data. NAHB confidence held at 39, below neutral (50) for 20 straight months.
The Spring Question
If Columbus new listings don’t accelerate to 2,500-plus per week in April and May, buyers will face fewer choices than spring 2025 despite YoY inventory gains. That would be seller-favorable. Nationally, HousingWire’s Market Tracker called early-2026 pending home sales “the highest in many years.” Demand exists. Whether supply meets it — and whether buyers stay active with rates above 6.3% — determines how the spring plays out.
E | Economy
Columbus held a 3.9% unemployment rate through late 2025, a full half-point below both the Ohio and U.S. averages. Ohio’s December 2025 property tax reform raised the owner-occupancy credit from 2.5% to 15%-plus and dropped the flat income tax rate to 2.75%, the second-lowest nationally. That combination makes Columbus increasingly attractive to small business owners and relocating workers running income comparisons against Chicago or Cleveland.
Intel Ohio One: Construction Is Real, Chips Are a Decade Away
The $28 billion Intel campus in New Albany is the largest single private investment in Ohio history — and its timeline keeps sliding. Intel’s most recent filing with the Ohio Department of Development confirms:
| Facility | Construction Complete | Production Start |
|---|---|---|
| Mod 1 Fab | 2030 | 2030–2031 |
| Mod 2 Fab | 2031 | 2032 |
The $300 million state incentive deadline at end-2028 will almost certainly be missed. Intel has $7–8 billion already in the ground and has secured a $2 billion equity infusion from SoftBank and a strategic stake from Nvidia. The company’s commitment to Ohio appears genuine — but permanent fab jobs are a 2030 story, not a 2026 story.
What is a 2026 story: Columbus Building Trades leader Dorsey Hager confirmed roughly 1,000 building trades workers on site now, with 600 more expected over the next 60–90 days as exterior work ramps seasonally. Projected peak: ~1,600 workers by year-end. That construction workforce creates near-term housing demand in New Albany and surrounding communities — which is why the area’s home prices have held even as the permanent-job timeline slips. New Albany homes averaged $606,000 in 2025, up 53% over five years.
The Geopolitical Factor: What It Means for Columbus Specifically
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is not a Columbus story in origin — but it is a Columbus story in effect. Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation. Inflation keeps mortgage rates elevated. Elevated mortgage rates push buyers out of qualification and keep sellers on the sidelines. Columbus is more insulated than markets in the Sun Belt or coastal cities — its affordability, population growth, and job base provide a structural floor. But it is not immune.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant outlined two paths when the war started in early March: a contained, short-duration conflict means a delayed spring market that rebounds when rates settle. A prolonged conflict means sustained rate pressure, energy-cost inflation hitting household budgets, and a spring that underperforms what the underlying Columbus demand fundamentals would otherwise support. Both paths remain live.
Per Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi on CNBC: “Consumers threaten to be hammered by the surge in oil prices… If oil prices stay near current levels of $100 per barrel, gasoline will be closing in on $4 a gallon.” Gas prices nationally have already risen 32% since late February. Ohio is not a high-cost gas state — but that spending comes out of the same household budget that covers a mortgage payment.
Title Professional Insights
Volume check: Columbus logged 29,626 closings in 2025, up 3% from 28,754. YTD through February 2026 is running essentially flat. NAR’s original +14% national transaction growth forecast assumed a sub-6.2% rate environment that no longer exists. A more realistic 2026 Columbus projection is 5–8% growth, contingent on rates stabilizing before the spring peak passes.
Refi pipeline: 30-year refi rates are 6.48–6.63% as of March 23. The window that briefly opened at 5.98% on Feb. 27 closed within days. The practical opportunity is now limited to homeowners who closed at 7%-plus in 2023–2024. Real but narrow.
Ohio title rates (Jan. 1, 2026): Homeowner’s policies now priced at Original Rate +15%, minimum $250 (up from $225). Update your estimates accordingly.
Wire fraud: $500 million annually in real estate wire fraud nationally. 66% of title professionals have experienced empty lot scams, up from 58% in 2023. Client education at contract signing is a competitive differentiator in this environment.
RON adoption: HB 315 permanent framework allows $40/session. 90% of lenders offer digital closings, but only 14% achieve greater than 80% adoption. Gap worth closing.
Real Estate Agent Insights
Pricing discipline is the job right now. 41% of Columbus listings saw price reductions in recent months. Sellers pricing aggressively are chasing a moving target in a rate environment that shifts week to week. Buyers have time — 49 median days on market in February, up 14% YoY. That is still a seller’s market by definition. But it is not 2021.
| Submarket | Signal |
|---|---|
| Dublin | ~$615K median; exec relocation demand holding |
| Delaware County | +13% closings YoY in Feb.; spillover from Dublin |
| Fairfield County | +20.2% closings YoY; value-driven volume |
| Pickerington | +36.4% closings YoY; February’s strongest community |
| New Albany | $606K avg; premium held by construction activity, not fab jobs yet |
| Olentangy LSD | $539,850 median in Dec.; +24.1% closings YoY |
Post-settlement commissions: Average Columbus rate 5.73%. Ohio HB 466 requires written buyer agreements before showings. The compensation conversation now happens before touring starts — that is a structural shift in how buyer relationships open.
Productivity concentration: Top 20% of Columbus agents do 65% of transactions, averaging 26/year. Bottom 80% average 3.5. Pricing precision and off-market relationships close that gap in tight inventory environments — and this spring may be one of those.
Real Estate Investor Insights
Single-family rentals: Columbus SFR vacancy at 4.1% vs. 6.8% nationally. Gross yield roughly 6.6%. Class B/C rent growth averaging 5% YoY. Average rents: 1BR $1,077–$1,445, 3BR $1,738. Fundamentals remain strong. Acquisition math is harder: cap rates haven’t expanded as fast as financing costs, compressing cash-on-cash returns for leveraged buyers. All-cash investors still find Columbus compelling.
Multifamily: 9,220 units under construction. 2026 deliveries projected at 5,153 — down 44% from 2025’s 8,561. That supply taper should stabilize vacancy, which hit 8.8–9.9% in 2025, a 20-year high. Net absorption surged 356% YoY to 5,172 units. The delivery cliff is a positive for existing owners.
Tax reform impact: Franklin County effective rates: 1.64–2.66%. Run post-reform assessment numbers before closing. Columbus Opportunity Zones still offer a 10% Ohio income tax credit on qualifying investments.
Hocking Hills: Vacation rental market is maturing. Well-designed, differentiated properties are holding. Generic inventory is getting squeezed by OTA fees and soft shoulder-season demand.
What to Watch
Columbus REALTORS March 2026 report (due mid-April)
March is the first real test of spring demand at post-war rate levels. If closings hold and median prices are stable, Columbus is absorbing the volatility. If volume disappoints, expect sellers to pull listings and wait for better conditions. This is the most important local data point of the next 30 days.
Iran conflict trajectory (ongoing)
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil retreats below $85/barrel, rates could follow within 2–3 weeks. If the conflict extends through summer, expect sustained pressure above 6.5% and a spring that underperforms Columbus’s underlying demand fundamentals. Both paths are live today.
March CPI + FOMC April 28–29
The March CPI report (due in April) is the leading indicator for what the Fed does at the April 28–29 meeting. Governor Waller’s public comments signal a hike is now a live possibility if energy-driven inflation re-accelerates. Futures markets currently price 50% probability of a hike before year-end.
Spring listing volume — weekly MLS counts
February new listings dipped 1.8% YoY. If April and May don’t produce 2,500-plus new listings per week in the Central Ohio MLS, buyers face fewer choices than spring 2025 despite YoY inventory gains. Watch the weekly Columbus REALTORS data closely through May.
Intel Ohio One Q2 filing
Intel’s next state report should update worker counts. The benchmark is 1,000 now, projected to peak at ~1,600 by year-end 2026. Any revision down signals cooling for New Albany-area pricing. Any acceleration signals the opposite.
AEP Ohio PUCO rate case decision
Hearings started January 21. Decision expected mid-2026. A proposed +$4/month increase stacks on top of Columbia Gas and Columbus Water hikes already in effect. Combined utility cost increases of $36–$61/month by 2027 affect both buyer affordability calculations and tenant retention for investors.
Source Index (65+ Sources)
Category 1: Columbus Local Housing (13)
- Columbus REALTORS Feb. 2026 Housing Report
- Columbus REALTORS Dec. 2025 Housing Report
- Redfin Columbus, Feb. 2026
- Movoto Columbus Market Trends, Feb. 2026
- Rita Boswell Group, Dec. 19, 2025
- Norada Real Estate Columbus, Oct. 2025
- Sam Cooper Realtor 2026 Forecast, Feb. 4, 2026
- The Mancini Group 2026 Forecast, Feb. 2, 2026
- SellFor1Percent Columbus Update, Feb. 9, 2026
- Houzeo Columbus OH 2026
- 10TV WCMH, Columbus Home Sales 2026
- ActiveRain, Feb. 2026 Central Ohio Report
- The Columbus Team, Feb. 2026 Report
Category 2: Columbus Economy & Infrastructure (17)
- WOSU, Columbus 2nd Largest Data Center Hub, Jan. 19, 2026
- Spectrum News 1, Data Center Study Commission, Mar. 19, 2026
- Spectrum News 1, SB 378 Water Bill, Mar. 18, 2026
- WOSU, City Council Data Center Hearing, Mar. 11, 2026
- WYSO & WVXU, UVA/Cooper Center report
- JobsOhio, Ohio Powers Data Centers
- Ohio Tech News, $2B Jobs Expansion, Nov. 30, 2025
- AWF Labor Tools, Building Trades Intel/Data, Mar. 2026
- Manufacturing Dive, Intel Delay to 2031, Jan. 5, 2026
- Construction Dive, Intel Delay to 2031, Jan. 5, 2026
- Hoodline, Intel New Albany Delayed to 2030, Mar. 2026
- Data Center Dynamics, Intel $28B Delay, Feb. 11, 2026
- Silicon Heartland New Albany, Timeline Update, Sept. 2025
- NBC4 Columbus, Intel Delay, Feb. 28, 2025
- Built In, Data Center Jobs: Pay, Roles and What to Expect, 2025
- Gigafact / Nevada Independent, Data Center Permanent Jobs, 2025
- Missoula Current, Data Center Job Predictions Don’t Add Up, Mar. 2026
Category 3: Mortgage Rates & Liquidity (16)
- Bankrate, Mar. 23, 20, 19, 2026 (3 daily reports)
- Fortune, Mortgage Rates Mar. 23 & 18, 2026
- Fortune, Refi Rates Mar. 23, 2026
- CBS News, Rates Mar. 20 & Mar. 17, 2026
- Money / Freddie Mac, Mar. 16–20, 2026
- MortgageResearch.com, Mar. 23 (citing WSJ / Greg Ip)
- FinancialContent, Sub-6% Analysis, Mar. 20, 2026
- US News, 2026 Rate Forecast
- Morgan Stanley, 2026 Mortgage Forecast
- Axios, Rates Stay Above 6%, Jan. 1, 2026
- The Mortgage Reports, Mar. Predictions 2026
- AINvest, Rising Rates Impact Mar. 2026
Category 4: National Housing Market (11)
- HousingWire, Rising Inventory, Jan. 21, 2026
- HousingWire, Inventory Builds, Feb. 18, 2026
- HousingWire, Pending Sales Back to YoY Growth, Feb. 2026
- ResiClub, 66 Markets Above 2019 Inventory, Mar. 17, 2026
- ResiClub, Inventory Up 10% YoY, Feb. 9, 2026
- ResiClub, Inventory Up 8% YoY, Mar. 2026
- Fast Company / ResiClub, Inventory Power, Feb. 7, 2026
- HomeBuyingInstitute, Spring 2026 Trends, Mar. 21, 2026
- CNBC, Spring Market + Rate Jump, Mar. 20, 2026
- Rate.com, 2026 Housing Outlook
- NAR Existing Home Sales, Feb. 2026
Category 5: Geopolitical, Macro & Independent Data Center Research (13)
- NBC News, Iran War Gas Prices, Mar. 22, 2026
- Bloomberg, Oil Surge / Global Recovery Risk, Mar. 3, 2026
- World Economic Forum, Global Price Tag of War, Mar. 2026
- Al Jazeera, Iran War Economic Impact, Mar. 16, 2026
- CNBC, Consumers Hammered by Oil, Mar. 10, 2026
- CBS News, Iran War Hits Housing, Mar. 5, 2026
- RealEstateNews.com, Iran Impact on Housing, Mar. 3, 2026
- TIME, Why Tax Breaks for AI Data Centers Could Backfire, Apr. 2025
- Univ. of Michigan Ford School, Data Center Policy Brief, 2025
- Good Jobs First, Data Center Tax Breaks Report, 2025
- DataCenterKnowledge, How Many Jobs Do Data Centers Create, Sept. 2025
- CSG South, Data Center Incentives Issue Brief, Dec. 2025
- Wikipedia, Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran War
PULSE is produced for informational purposes. Data accuracy depends on sources cited. Market conditions change rapidly; consult current MLS data, licensed professionals, and legal/financial advisors before making real estate decisions. Published March 23, 2026.
